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The models showed that as the troposphere has been expanding, it has been pushing upward on the stratosphere. They also found that as carbon dioxide made its way into the stratosphere, it has had a cooling effect, resulting in a contracting force. The researchers found the net result was a thinning stratosphere. Their calculations showed that the stratosphere has thinned by approximately 400 meters since the 1980s, which translates to approximately 1% of its thickness. Running the models forward showed that the stratosphere will continue thinning as long as greenhouse gasses are emitted into the atmosphere. They suggest it could thin by as much as a kilometer in just 60 years. They note that their model also showed that changes to the ozone layer had little impact on thinning of the stratosphere.

The researchers note that it is still not clear what impact a shrinking stratosphere may have on the planet, but note that it could affect the trajectories of satellites and how radio waves propagate, which could eventually have an impact on the Global Positioning System.