The case for stocks to carry higher through the end of the year is uncomplicated: It’s a bull market, most years finish strong, Covid vaccines are coming, the recent run-up has been broad and well-led by riskier stocks, profit expectations have turned up and the credit markets are in a giving mood.

The obvious thing working against this upbeat set-up are the burden of record Covid-case growth and the economic drag of health-related suppression measures.