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2018 Albany County Democratic Primary – Nixon vs Cuomo – Google Sheets

2018 Albany County Democratic Primary – Nixon vs Cuomo – Google Sheets

I ran the 2018 Albany Democratic Primary, Cynthia Nixon v Andrew Cuomo through the vote analysis software I wrote a few years back and uploaded this spreadsheet. The voting patterns in the primary were actually kind of unusual -- the Democratic coalitions built by Nixon and Cuomo are different then in years past (this is better seen on the Google Map).

Overall, Nixon and Cuomo split the county 47.80% to 47.99%.

2018 Gubernatorial Primary in Albany County

Cynthia Nixon = Deeper Purple
Split Vote = White/Light Purple/Light Green
Andrew Cuomo = Deeper Green

During the Albany County Democratic Primary, Cythnia Nixon and Andrew Cuomo split the county 47.80% to 47.99%. Cynthia Nixon preformed well in the rural areas, along with Academy, Center Square, Delmar, Heldeberg, McKownville, Pine Hills, Slingerlands. Cuomo did better in minority neighborhoods such as Arbor Hill and the South End, along with suburban neighborhoods such as Loudonville, and Guilderland. It's actually kind of interesting mix of voting patterns this primary.

Data Source: Albany County Board of Elections, 2018 Democratic Primary Results. http://app.albanycounty.com/boe/electionresults/

How Albany County Legislative Races Are Shaping Up

The New County Legislature Districts.

I recently took the County Legislative District Census Block list and imported it into QGIS using the Census Tiger Lines, then re-exported it into a Google Maps, to create this great interactive map.


View Larger Map

At One Level Looks Great for Democrats…

No current legislative district in Albany County recieved less then 50% a 2010 Average Democrats Performance. That said, with swing and other factors (e.g. candidate quality, local issues), certain Democrats are expected to lose races that a Generic Democrat could have won in the same location.

Voltage high, excite relay!

Tearing down the black snow maker

…However, In Many of Those Districts, Swing Is Very High.

In the suburban districts, while many may have gone strongly for Governor Cuomo, many chose to vote for Republicans for State Assembly or State Senate. This suggests things may not be as rosy from Democrats in the County as the Average Democratic Performance makes it seem.

Here is a list of safe districts, marginals, along with the swing and average ADP for Voting Tabulation Districts in each Legislative District.

District 2010 ADP 2010 Swing Safe District Non-Marginal District
39 50.54% 13.92% No. No.
27 51.67% 19.92% No. No.
35 53.33% 23.33% No. No.
31 53.80% 20.00% No. No.
22 54.50% 22.00% No. No.
19 55.00% 18.00% No. Yes.
38 55.14% 20.57% No. Yes.
21 55.47% 19.00% No. Yes.
23 56.33% 20.67% No. Yes.
33 57.00% 18.00% No. Yes.
12 57.43% 13.29% No. Yes.
26 57.78% 20.56% No. Yes.
20 58.11% 28.00% No. Yes.
29 58.50% 18.50% No. Yes.
24 59.00% 22.00% No. Yes.
30 59.00% 17.67% No. Yes.
37 60.20% 18.60% No. Yes.
34 63.81% 21.63% No. Yes.
11 64.07% 15.13% No. Yes.
18 67.33% 37.17% No. Yes.
17 70.50% 40.75% No. Yes.
10 73.00% 17.70% Yes. Yes.
16 73.22% 35.33% No. Yes.
5 73.76% 13.81% Yes. Yes.
14 76.00% 26.78% No. Yes.
9 77.00% 18.00% Yes. Yes.
8 77.36% 14.07% Yes. Yes.
13 78.15% 14.31% Yes. Yes.
15 78.20% 31.60% No. Yes.
3 82.81% 11.00% Yes. Yes.
7 85.40% 14.80% Yes. Yes.
6 86.50% 12.00% Yes. Yes.
2 87.00% 24.00% Yes. Yes.
1 91.24% 15.71% Yes. Yes.
4 92.25% 11.25% Yes. Yes.

Data Sources.

Methodology.

The 2010 Average Democratic Performance (ADP) is based on US Senate, US Congress, Governor’s Race, State Senate, State Assembly, State Comptroller and State Attorney General Races, broken down by voting tabulation district, then all Democrats added together and divided by the total number of Democratic and Republican votes. Swing is a caculation of Maximum Statewide Democratic Candidate Preformance, subtracted by Minimum Statewide Republican Candidate Preformance.

Election Districts have changed in Albany County since the redistricting by the County Legislature. The data used to compute Average Democratic Preformance is based on Census Standard Voting Tabulation Districts, which have in many cases changed with redistricting. The largest geographic portion of the Census Standard Voting District was counted in the legislative district it exists in.

I computed safe seats as those with a 2010 ADP – 2010 Swing greater then 50%. Marginal districts, are those where Democrats recieved a less then 55% ADP. Normally one would use less then 50% to define marginal, however Andrew Cuomo polled so highly in many districts that he distored the statistics used. The lowest 2010 ADP Standard Voting Tabulation district in all of Albany County was only 43% ADP, which is remarkably high for anywheres in Upstate NY that is not highly urbanized.