2017 February 10

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February 2017
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Questions? Need an updated map? Email me andy@andyarthur.org.

The other day I went to Shoprite and brought back nearly three fully-stuffed bags full of one-use shopping bags for recycling. I think they’re from the past month or so. It’s remarkable the waste. It’s great that they will most likely be ground up and turned into floor tiling, but I really should

I got to get back in the habit in using reusable shopping bags once again. There was a time I always used them, then the ones I had kind of wore out or got dirty to the point where they couldn’t clean them well. At the same time, Shoprite did away with the discount for reusable bags, and Walmart never have one.

Moreover, in the summer months while camping, I like having a good supply of disposable shopping bags. I use them for carrying camping goods and for trash bags, because normally at camp I burn the burnable trash daily so I’m not carrying around trash that attracts animals. But that’s not an excuse in the winter, because I’m just ending up with a lot of waste, that while recycled, still wastes resources.

nycmap $id

I got to buy more reusable shopping bags.

“Tonight might be cold and snowy but in fifteen more Fridays it will be Memorial Day Weekend. It will be nice sitting by the campfire getting eaten alive by black flies.”

Good evening Snow and 20 degrees in Delmar. There is a south-southeast breeze at 5 mph. Going to be a rather cloudy weekend.  The skies will clear Monday around 9 pm.

Tonight will snow, mainly before 5am, then snow likely with a chance of light snow after 5am. Low of 20 degrees at 8pm. Two degrees above normal. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. In 2016, it got down to 8 degrees with periods of snow. The record low of -18 occurred back in 1962.

February’s Snow Moon is tonight. The Last Quarter Moon is on Saturday, February 18th with mostly cloudy then slight chance of snow skies expected. The Full “Worm” Moon is on Sunday, March 12th. The sun will rise at 6:57 am with the first light at 6:27 am, which is 1 minutes and 19 seconds earlier then yesterday. I really like those earlier sunrises especially when it’s not so cloudy out. Tonight will have 13 hours and 34 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 38 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will have a chance of snow showers, possibly mixing with rain after 11am, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high of 36 degrees at 3pm. Two degrees above normal. South wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. A year ago, we had snow and a high of 27 degrees. The record high of 59 was set in 1981. 9.6 inches of snow fell back in 1933.

Not sure what my plans are for tomorrow. I could go to the Adirondack Outdoorsman show in Johnstown but not if the roads are crappy or if the weather is cloudy and miserable. It’s too long of a drive to do it in bad not scenic weather in my opinion. It’s one thing to go to the Adirondacks for a weekend or even a long day trip but I’m not going to drive an hour each way just to see a small outdoors show when its too nasty to ski much less enjoy the scenery. I was hoping the weather would be nice and I could go cross country skiing at Rockwood State Forest after the outdoors expo. 

In four weeks on March 10 the sun will be setting at 5:56 pm, which is 35 minutes later then tonight. In 2016 on that day, we had fog, rain and temperatures between 66 and 55 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 42 and 23 degrees. The record high of 72 degrees was set back in 1977.

Looking ahead, St. Patrick’s Day is in 5 weeks, Good Friday is in 9 weeks, Arbor Day is in 11 weeks, Cinco de Mayo is in 12 weeks and Memorial Day Weekend is in 15 weeks. Easter is late this year. 

It’s snowing out again this evening. Maybe two inches by morning. We might come close to breaking the record tonight which is only four inches except I think the timing will be too late. 

Sunday’s snow storm is complicated but I’m leaning towards 6-7 inches of snow between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. It won’t be a real heavy snow but it will add up. A lot depends on the temperature and how much moisture pushes in.

  • 1 inch – Sunday 11 AM
  • 2 inches – 2 PM
  • 3 inches – 5 PM
  • 4 inches – 7 PM
  • 5 inches – 11 PM
  • 6 inches – Monday 6 AM

Happy Weekend! Mostly cloudy and 21 degrees in City of Albany. There is a west breeze at 7 mph. The skies will clear Monday around 9 pm.

Tonight will be light snow, mainly after 9pm. Low of 20 degrees at 7pm. Two degrees above normal. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. In 2016, it got down to 8 degrees with periods of snow. The record low of -18 occurred back in 1962.

February’s Snow Moon tonight with 98% illuminated. The moon will set around 8:54 am. The Full “Snow” Moon will be tomorrow with mostly cloudy then slight chance of snowp. The sun will rise at 6:57 am with the first light at 6:27 am, which is 1 minutes and 19 seconds earlier then yesterday. Tonight will have 13 hours and 34 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 38 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will have a chance of snow showers, possibly mixing with rain after 11am, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high of 36 degrees at 3pm. Two degrees above normal. South wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. A year ago, we had snow and a high of 27 degrees. The record high of 59 was set in 1981. 9.6 inches of snow fell back in 1933.

In four weeks on March 10 the sun will be setting at 5:56 pm, which is 35 minutes later then tonight. In 2016 on that day, we had fog, rain and temperatures between 66 and 55 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 42 and 23 degrees. The record high of 72 degrees was set back in 1977.

Looking ahead, St. Patrick’s Day is in 5 weeks, Good Friday is in 9 weeks, Arbor Day is in 11 weeks, Cinco de Mayo is in 12 weeks and Memorial Day Weekend is in 15 weeks.

Growth of Capital Region Population, 1790-2010

This map shows the growth of Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, and Schenectady County's population from the forming of our nation to now. Major sections were broken off of Albany County between 1790 and 1810, which is why the county shows a population dip. Saratoga saw a big jump in population after the Adirondack Northway was built.

Data: US Census Total Population Counts, 1790-2010

It needs to be said, that sugar coating the truth of climate change isn’t helping anyone except maybe short-term political expediency.

It bugs me when political leaders refuse to talk about climate change or acknowledge that humans are changing the climate, because only a stupid person would fail to acknowledge such an obvious fact. Every day when I look at the weather records, we are consistently above historical averages, and record breaking cold is almost unheard of these days. Almost all the cold records are 100 plus years old.

I understand the climate change activists are obnoxious people, advocating unrealistic goals, hoping for near ideal outcomes. Sure an ideal goal for not cooking the planet would be an emissions cut of 80% over 1990 levels, which conveniently now is described as keeping the yearly global average climate within 2 degrees Celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit temperatures that were averaged out in the 20th century.

That would be ideal. Such levels have been judged to minimize serious damage to the earth’s climate, even though any realistic person knows that wouldn’t be possible without an impractical or generally undesirable crash diet on humanity’s use of carbon for energy and all other purposes. Renewables offer a lot of promise, but they aren’t a stand-in for our high levels energy consumption we get from fossil fuels. Even if we could make nuclear safe, it would bankrupt society before we ever made much of a dent in the climate.

If you were to eat a controlled food ration every day of year and never smoked, drank alcohol, or went out in town on Friday night, you could probably live a lot longer. You would be a lot healthier for sure. But we don’t live in such a world, but do make informed choices in our diet and lifestyle choices, and realize life is a compromise that you make. It’s not a bad idea to eat a little more broccoli, choose to not smoke, consume alcohol in moderation, exercise and not party too hard. But it would suck to give up on all that is fun and good in life. No cookies, no alcohol ever?

Reasonable adults would come to the table and weight the pros and cons of addressing climate change to different extents. There should be an informed dialog, one where we as a society get together and come to a consensus on what would be an appropriate amount of change – and not just an theoretically ideal number. We should harden our communities against obvious storm threats, like increased flooding and sea rise, as the climate gets warmer. We should take reasonable steps, like investment in roof-top solar and wind turbines and replacing old coal and nuclear plants with modern, efficient gas peaking and mid-load plants. We should be designing automobiles to be efficient while serving the purposes of their owners.

There are cost-effective solutions that would allow for economic growth, while ensuring people are comfortable and can do much what they currently do today. Climate change action should be about moderation not extremism, and should address the serious threats while balancing our contemporary needs.

Heads up on the weather for Sunday into Monday…

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch… which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening.

* Locations…southern Adirondacks, Lake George-Saratoga region, Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Schoharie Valley, Central Taconics, Berkshires and Southern Vermont.

* Hazard types…heavy snow.

* Accumulations…greater than 7 inches of snow is possible.

* Winds…wind gusts are expected to increase Sunday night through Monday that may result in blowing and drifting of snow.

Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Gross Domestic Product, 1929-2016

This interactive graph shows the real gross domestic product of the United States, inflation adjusted from 1929 through 2016. This graph shows that America is roughly 15% wealthier then in 2009, and 28% wealthier then in 2000. While it can be argued over the fairness of current wealth distribution patterns, and while per capita wealth has grown at a slower rate, it is clear that America has seen a dramatic growth of it's total wealth over recent years.

Data Source: https://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&904=1929&903=3&906=a&905=2016&910=x&911=0