Punxsutawney Phil is seeing his shadow less these days compared to 30 years ago:

1887-1990: No Shadow 10%. (9 times – no shadow. 83 times – shadow, 10 times – no record, 1 shadow cast by war.)
1991-2020: No Shadow 30%. (9 times – no shadow. 21 times – shadow.)

Statistically, the average since 1887, is the Ground Hog doesn’t see his shadow 19% of the time. But if you look at the most recent 30 year average, you see the Ground Hog is much more likely (30%) to predict an early spring.