2017 May 10

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May 2017
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Questions? Need an updated map? Email me andy@andyarthur.org.

Good evening! Big beautiful flower full moon tonight. Partly cloudy and 52 degrees in Delmar, NY. Calm wind. We are now one month out from the start of the Gas up Antique Engine show  What a great program and it’s free. 

Sitting out back having some water and orange juice, loving how that little USB reading lamp is illuminating my tailgate and backyard like day time. It’s so bright, almost too bright. But being USB, it can’t draw more than probably 2.5 watts as the USB spec calls for 1/2 amp 5 VDC, although phones do have a quick charge mode that can draw 2.1 amp or 11 watts but I doubt that the lamp has that capacity. Still its a remarkable amount of light. A bit cold in color but color rendition is good. Reading a book out back or at camp won’t be a problem going forward and it won’t require any fancy wiring or set up. I do look forward to those warm summer nights. I am hoping spring will arrive after this weekends heavy rains. 

Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low of 39 degrees at 5am. Seven degrees below normal. Light northwest wind. A bit cool for this time of year, but otherwise pleasant.  In 2016, it got down to 40 degrees with mostly clear skies. The record low of 29 occurred back in 2010.

Enjoy that full moon tonight when it gets out from under the clouds. The Last Quarter Moon is on Friday, May 19th with mostly cloudy then chance of rain expected. The Full “Strawberry” Moon is on Friday, June 9th. Might be great for camping. Powley Place would be amazing under a full moon. The sun will rise at 5:37 am with the first light at 5:05 am, which is one minute and 8 seconds earlier than yesterday. Tonight will have 9 hours and 29 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 11 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny, with a high of 64 degrees at 3pm. Four degrees below normal. A bit cool but otherwise amazing. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. A year ago, we had mostly sunny skies and a high of 75 degrees. The record high of 90 was set in 1911. 0.5 inches of snow fell back in 1907.

Not a particularly nice weekend on tap. Saturday, occasional rain, mainly after 8am. High near 53. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday, occasional rain before 8am, then a chance of showers after 8am. High near 58. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Typical average high for the weekend is 69 degrees. I’m staying in town this weekend and unfortunately next weekend I will be downstate for work. Sucks but I’m hoping for a delightful kick off to summer in Vermont on Memorial Day Weekend. 

In four weeks on June 7 the sun will be setting at 8:31 pm, which is 24 minutes and 59 seconds later then tonight. In 2016 on that day, we had rain, mostly cloudy skies and temperatures between 77 and 58 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 76 and 54 degrees. The record high of 95 degrees was set back in 1999.

Looking ahead, Pack Rat Day is Next Wednesday, 50th Gas Up in Gallupville is in a month, Flag Day is in 5 weeks, Summer is in 6 weeks, Last Day with Average High of 80 is in 15 weeks, Harvest Moon is in 17 weeks, 6:30 PM Sunset is in 21 weeks, Coldest Day of Year (Avg. 14-30 degrees) is in 8 months and Inauguration Day 2021 is in 193 weeks.

I better get to bed because I have to be up at six AM or so because I have some business to attend to early in the morning. 

The Endangered Species Act may be heading for the threatened list. This hearing confirmed it.

"In a comment to a former U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service director who testified at the hearing, Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okla.), repeated a point made by Barrasso that of more than 1,600 species listed as threatened or endangered since the act’s inception, fewer than 50 have been removed."

That’s about 3 percent of the total, the chairman said. “As a doctor, if I admit 100 patients to the hospital and only three recover enough to be discharged, I would deserve to lose my medical license,” Inhofe said.

This is a valid point. I suggest the use of federal quick-take eminent domain to take lands needed for protection of species. The federal government seizes the land, then the parties go to court to work out fair market value after the taking. We use quick-take eminent domain a lot for expressways and even things like office buildings, malls, pipelines and power plants, but not so much for conservation purposes.

Murders by County, 1990-2015

This graph shows all the murders that have occurred in New York State from 1990 through 2015, by county. All of New York State has seen murders go down, although in many upstate counties trend in the number of murders has been hidden by the ordinary noise in the data (murders are somewhat random, they don't evenly go up or down by a certain percent every year). When you have 50 murders on a particular year, a handful more murders can totally throw off a long-standing trend. DCJS has more detailed statistics on index crimes, by county and police departments from 1990-2015. There are some reporting differences between these stats and the ones put out for the US Department of Justice, so numbers don't match exactly but are following the same trend.

Data Source: Index Crimes by County and Agency: Beginning 1990. NYSDCJS. https://data.ny.gov/Public-Safety/Index-Crimes-by-County-and-Agency-Beginning-1990/ca8h-8gjq

Arrests in New York, 1970-2015

Violent crime is down in New York. Drug felony arrests have been generally replaced with more drug misdemeanor arrests, as parts of the Rockefeller Drug Laws have slowly repealed. These declines in crime have been somewhat offset by increases in property crimes, and big increases in miscellaneous felonies and misdemeanors. Most the rise is likely do to the many new crimes which have been created in recent years to make up for losses in inmate population, and to criminalize previously lawful conduct that certain special interest groups want to see criminalized.

Data Source: DCJS, Adult Arrests, 1970-2015. https://data.ny.gov/Public-Safety/Adult-Arrests-by-County-Beginning-1970/rikd-mt35