Job Creators

Things about job creators and business in our country.

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Janet Yellen Explains Why The Fed Is Flying Blind

"To understand the import of these statements, a bit of background might help. Like most mainstream economists, Yellen believes that there is a causal relationship between the jobless rate and the rate of inflation. When unemployment falls below a certain level, the scarcity of workers enables them to negotiate higher wages, and inflation picks up. Economists call this threshold the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or “nairu,” for short.

"If you are running the Federal Reserve, a clear understanding of the nairu is obviously a very useful thing to have. For the sake of argument, let’s say that you think the nairu is five per cent. If the monthly unemployment rate then dips below that—to 4.8 per cent, say—you would expect inflation to pick up in the coming months. And that might well prompt you to start raising interest rates to prevent an inflationary spiral from developing."

"As it happens, the Fed did once think that the nairu was somewhere close to five per cent. Today, though, the harsh truth is the Fed doesn’t know what the figure is, or whether it even exists in a usable form. "

Trump To Sign Executive Order Supporting Domestic Goods And Workers

"The "Buy American" portion of the executive order calls for stricter enforcement of laws requiring the federal government to buy American-made products when possible. Administration officials complain that those laws have been watered down over the years and often are sidestepped with government waivers."

"The "Hire American" part of the order aims to crack down on what the administration calls "abuses" of government guest-worker programs. The biggest target is the H-1B visa program, which is designed to help technology firms fill jobs requiring special skills but which critics say often is used to replace American workers with lower-paid foreign competitors."

Jobs Created in New York State, February 2012-2017

While state breakdowns of job creation are lagged by two weeks beyond the national numbers, it's interesting to look back at job creation numbers in our state for the past five years compared to the national numbers. While there has been job created for every month in the past five years nationally, some months in New York have seen job loses -- even though most months have seen gains rather then loses.

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm in New York [NYNA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYNA, April 7, 2017.

Job Growth Loses Steam as U.S. Adds 98,000 in March

"Hiring in March was expected to drop after the monthly gains of more than 200,000 in the two previous months, but this was the weakest showing for the economy in nearly a year. Although it represents just one month’s data, it will raise questions about whether improving business sentiment is actually translating into any meaningful action by employers."

"On the other hand, at 4.5 percent in March, the unemployment rate is at its lowest point since May 2007, marking a milestone in the long road back from the Great Recession."

Monthly Job Creation, March 2012-2017

In March 2017, the economy only created 98,000 new jobs which suggests the US Economy is starting to slow down a bit. But the job creation numbers bounce around quite a bit, and sometimes job creation is slower towards the end of winter compared to spring and summer months when construction increase. That said, publicly it looks bad for President Donald Trump, when so much of his message is job creation.

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, April 7, 2017.

Men and the Manufacturing Decline

"In many small towns across the country, there aren’t very many good jobs these days. Once there were factories that employed millions and paid decent wages. Today, young men are scraping by working at local bars or in lower-paid temp jobs. Many of these men are single, and new research suggests that those two things—their poor economic status and their singleness—are not unrelated."

"It’s no wonder, then, that the changes wrought by the disappearance of manufacturing jobs helped elevate the platform of Donald Trump, who won 67 percent of white workers without a college degree. Their malcontent comes not just from their economic struggles, but from the dramatic changes to their personal lives that the decline of manufacturing have created."

Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back Beacause Advanced Manfacturing is Largely Automated.

"Boston Consulting Group reports that it costs barely $8 an hour to use a robot for spot welding in the auto industry, compared to $25 for a worker—and the gap is only going to widen. More generally, the “job intensity” of America’s manufacturing industries—and especially its best-paying advanced ones—is only going to decline. In 1980 it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in the U.S. Today it takes five jobs."

"The automated, hyper-efficient shop floors of modern manufacturing won’t give Trump much room to deliver on his outsized promises to bring back millions of jobs for his blue-collar supporters."