Topics — Andy Arthur.org

Riding the hump 🐪

Andy | August 19, 2026

Should be a good day for riding into work today. Up at the Enterprise all day today, got a lot of work things checked off my list yesterday, I am less afraid of falling behind because I spent last weekend at the pool and hanging up at Burnt Rossman.

I totally want to head up north for a long weekend this weekend, 🌧️ one last run at the Potholers and floating in the East Canada Creek but the weather sure doesn’t look great and I think the following week will be tough to get away. But I agree it’s probably best to stay home, especially with only $238 left in my checking account until I get paid on Monday. I am a soldier 🪖 in the war on poverty. I guess then it’s onwards to remote-working Labor Day Weekend from Speculator. Maybe if it’s warm enough that first weekend of September I can do a little end of summer tube floating on the Jessup River. Then I guess there is always next year, but you never know about the future.

In your forties you just never know about the future. 🔮 I keep telling myself there will be another summer when I can still get away and have fun on the weekends, as I’ll have land, livestock and house. Maybe I couldn’t imagine a life after Big Red, but the SuperDuty let me keep doing what I was doing before. Maybe next weekend I’ll get away for a long weekend to the Potholers, if not, there is always the Labor Day adventure and all of the autumn trips. Considering hiking Snowy Mountain on Labor Day Weekend if it’s not too hot and I’m not too busy remote working from camp. Mom reminded me that my $800 a month run down apartment is not guaranteed forever, but still I realize with how little I pay, I might well enjoy it 😍 as long as I can. I’ll plug the holes with some expanding foam and wall plaster, and get a door sweep to minimize the air leaks before it gets cold this winter. Hoping with El Nino, it will be a mild winter despite high energy prices, 🌀 though I’ll probably keep my central gas heat at 48-50 degrees all winter except the coldest days, and instead rely on the heated blanket and very rarely the space heater. I’m month to month, been that way for years now.

Insurance agent 👨🏼‍💼 was all excited to call me yesterday and let me know about my discounts after I have done a bit of shopping around 🔎 for alternative carriers. I’m sure he got the notice. 🪧 I know I’ve paid him and his predecessor tens of thousands of dollars 💵 and I’m a good customer who has never filed a claim, I don’t drive much, and my Drive Safe monitoring device shows I’m a relatively safe driver even if I do brake too hard especially with those awesome SuperDuty brakes. High deductible plan too I have because it’s stupid to insure a loss you can afford to pay out of pocket. But I should look more at alternative carriers to see if they offer more coverage for less. ⚖️ I ignored his first call but he kept bugging me.

Yesterday was the training class, 🧑‍🏫 which went well, then I rode out to the Town Park 🏞️ until dusk which occurs earlier and earlier now that it’s the second half of the August. Sat down there with the work laptop – did some work stuff, but also followed up on a few people about Big Red. 🛻 Still got to figure out what to do with the old truck – lower the price – take one of the cash offers online or from a scrap yard or something else. Hoping somebody will put in a reasonable deal though I get it a rusted out frame Silverado is kind of hard to sell. But I still think I will get something for the old truck, if only for the scrap metal.

Trying to get in early so I can get enough work hours in, ⏰ so it’s off to the shower 🚿 and then riding in. Hoping to be in by around 8 AM, plus that will allow me to get caught up on a few remaining things on my list that are outstanding. 🚵‍♂️ Should be a nice bike ride in, the bike is running relatively well, some squeaks and wheels are never true, but whatever. It gets me back and forth to work, around town, up and around camp. 🛺 It’s kind of my 25-year old Honda Civic that everybody tells me is so awesome, the dream car to take your plastic house with weekly garbage and garbage “recycling” service. That stink of the garbage “recycling” plant I ride by and the sewage treatment plants next to my office. 👃 City life, which is different then those smells of burnt plastic and cow shit in the country. 🐮

Map: Doodletown Wildlife Management Area

Are Beavers Actually Good at Dams?

Andy | August 18, 2026

Map: Green Mountain National Forest North

Wasted Capacity

Andy | August 18, 2026

Why does the Northway have 6 lanes at 2 AM? Most of that capacity is only needed during rush hour.

Wouldn’t it save money to only have the right most lane open at night, especially in winter when they have to plow it? But also closing unneeded lanes at night would reduce wear and tear on asphalt.

What Is Driving the Worldwide Bond Selloff? 📜

Andy | August 18, 2026

Government bonds are selling off worldwide as investors demand higher returns to hold long-term debt. The core catalysts pushing global bond yields up include:

Geopolitical Conflict & Energy Costs: The expiration of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has extended the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven Brent crude oil prices past $91 a barrel, stoking fears of stubborn, cost-push inflation across the economy.
Massive Government Deficits: Governments globally, especially in the U.S. where national debt is nearing $40 trillion, are issuing massive amounts of new debt. Investors are demanding a “term premium” (extra yield) to compensate for the risk of lending to highly indebted nations.
Central Bank Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve under new Chairman Kevin Warsh has reduced forward guidance and communication. This lack of clarity has left investors uncertain about future interest rate paths, adding volatility to the bond market.
The AI Boom Alternative: Technology giants are issuing massive corporate debt to fund artificial intelligence data centers and chip purchases. This heavy corporate issuance creates a capital-hungry competitor to sovereign bonds, forcing government yields higher to compete.

📈 The Relationship: Bond Price vs. Bond Yield

Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions.

When a bond is issued, it has a fixed face value (e.g., $1,000) and pays a fixed interest rate (the coupon rate, e.g., 4%). If market conditions change—such as inflation rising or a new Fed chair suggesting higher rates—investors will no longer want to buy that older 4% bond at full price when they can get higher returns elsewhere.

To sell that older bond in the open market, the owner must drop its price below $1,000. Because the fixed $40 annual payout remains the same, buying the bond at a discount means the buyer receives a higher effective return on their investment. That effective return is the yield.

Therefore, during a selloff:

Investors sell their bonds en masse, forcing bond prices to fall.
As bond prices fall, the mathematical yields rise to multi-decade highs.

💵 How It Impacts Americans’ Everyday Finances

Because government bond yields serve as the foundational benchmark for the global financial system, this selloff directly hits regular consumers in three distinct ways:

1. Surging Loan and Mortgage Rates

Consumer loans are closely tied to Treasury benchmarks. With the 10-year Treasury note spiking toward 4.75% and the 30-year yield hitting 5.34% (its highest since 2007), fixed mortgage rates are being driven up toward 6.5% or higher. This drastically increases the monthly cost of buying a home and raises interest rates on new credit cards, auto loans, and student loans.

2. Squeezed Stock and Retirement Portfolios

Higher bond yields create a “hurdle rate” for equities. When investors can get a safe, guaranteed 5.3% yield from government debt, they pull money out of riskier assets like stocks. This shift has already caused recent drops in major stock indexes like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, directly lowering the value of 401(k) accounts and retirement portfolios.

3. Strained Corporate and Banking Balance Sheets

As corporate borrowing costs rise alongside Treasury yields, businesses find it more expensive to expand, hire, or roll over existing debt. Over time, this can lead to cooling job growth. Furthermore, prolonged drops in bond prices devalue the existing bond portfolios held on bank balance sheets, generating underlying stress within the broader financial sector.

Dreaming of home in the meadows 🌼 🐐

Andy | August 18, 2026

There is a profound, grounding poetry written across the rolling rural landscapes of Upstate New York. It is carved into the gentle crests of the hills, spelled out in the margins of old stone walls, and sung aloud by the wild meadows that stitch our valleys together. Whenever I head down the trail, my steps naturally falter, captured by the spontaneous architecture of untamed colors. I can lose entire afternoons to this wandering—stepping into fields where time seems to slow down, entirely captivated by the quiet majesty of plants that grew exactly where the wind intended.

To walk these paths in summer is to witness a masterpiece of mutual devotion. Look closely, and you will see the fiery, neon crowns of bee balm leaning into the afternoon light, humming with the frenetic energy of bumblebees. Nearby, the sturdy, understated elegance of purple coneflowers stands like sentinels of the field, their golden centers serving as landing pads for migrating monarchs. Goldenrod begins to brush the ridges in yellow light, while patches of wild milkweed and blue-flag iris soften the ditches and damp hollows. This is not just a pretty backdrop; it is a breathing, working landscape. It is the frontline of pollination, a quiet engine of resilience holding up our local ecosystems, our neighborhood farms, and the very air we breathe. Wildflowers give everything they have to the community, asking for nothing but a patch of dirt and a sliver of sun.

This breathtaking harmony is the blueprint for my deepest daydream. Someday, when I finally clear a space for that cabin, that home, that homestead, I will not attempt to conquer the earth with manicured lawns or heavy machinery. My land will be a sanctuary for the true locals. I want to build a working landscape where man and nature exist in a state of mutual respect—a space where crops and wild things blur seamlessly at the edges.

I am fiercely set on an organic path, one that completely rejects the sterile promise of pesticides, synthetic chemicals, and artificial intervention. Instead of forcing delicate, introduced species to survive on life support, I want to champion the resilient native flora that has evolved alongside the local wildlife for millennia. Even if a sweeping drift of bee balm or coneflower doesn’t yield a direct financial profit or put food on my kitchen table, it pays a more sacred dividend. It anchors the soil, filters the rain, and invites the birds. It creates a diverse, self-sustaining ecosystem that requires minimal maintenance because it is exactly where it belongs. On that future homestead, stewardship will not mean dominating the soil, but gently lifting out the disruptive, invasive species to let the native soul of the land breathe.

But that homestead is a map still waiting to be drawn, tucked safely inside my imagination.

For now, I do not own the ridges or the valleys. I am simply a grateful guest passing through. Until the day I can plant my own deep roots into those rolling hills, you can find me exactly where I belong—happily lost in the woods, tracking the flight of a honeybee, and drinking in the wild, unbothered beauty of the flowers.