Day: January 13, 2023πŸ’Ύ

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January 13, 2023 Night

Good evening! Cloudy and 33 degrees for the evening walk in Delmar. ☁ There is a northwest breeze at 10 mph. πŸƒ. The skies will clear Sunday around 4 am.

Survived Friday the 13th πŸ‘» though I hardly noticed it. Busy at the end of the day. Rain stopped fairly early, got in 18k steps or eight miles for the day.

The work week has come and gone, πŸ’Ό it’s a three day weekend ahead. I won’t say it was an exceptional week but busy though most days I got home at the normal time. Thursday was wet. Friday morning at work was quiet for a while than it got busy.

Just out for the evening walk 🚢 after doing some cleaning and packing around the apartment. Toilet 🚽 needed a good scrub, as did the sink, counter tops and kitchen floor. I’m dirty, everything I own is dirty and worn but I kind of like the life. Maybe that’s why I idolize farming so much, especially the ramshackle, rundown farms in the hills. 🐐 Maybe tomorrow when I get out of town I can see some of them.

Getting ready to head out of town for a few nights of winter camping and hiking. β›Ί I still haven’t fully decided how far I want to head from home. Tomorrow night will be cold but Sunday and Kings day pretty nice. I’ll bring the microspikes but won’t need the skis due to a lack of snow basically everywhere except for the Adirondacks.

I’m just happy 😊 to be getting away. I just feel so trapped living in the city. Earlier in the week, one of colleagues from high school wanted to know when I planned to move back into the hills. β›° It’s a question I ask myself a lot. At the same time I keep hearing stories about people falling over and dying from heart attacks in their 40s and 50s.

Tonight will be cloudy ☁, with a low of 27 degrees at 5am. 11 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around March 18th. North wind around 10 mph. In 2022, we had cloudy skies. It got down to 6 degrees. The record low of -24 occurred back in 1957.

Tonight will have a Last Quarter πŸŒ— Moon with 59% illuminated. The moon will rise at 11:34 pm. The darkest hour is at 12:05 am, followed by dawn at 6:53 am, and sun starting to rise at 7:24 am in the east-southeast (119Β°) and last for 3 minutes and 19 seconds. Sunrise is 23 seconds earlier than yesterday. πŸŒ„ The golden hour ends at 8:09 am with sun in the southeast (127Β°). Tonight will have 14 hours and 35 minutes of darkness, a decrease of one minute and 33 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy πŸŒ₯, with a high of 33 degrees at 2pm. Typical for this time of year. North wind 10 to 13 mph. A year ago, we had cloudy skies. The high last year was 32 degrees. The record high of 66 was set in 1932. 9.0 inches of snow fell back in 1999.❄

I keep thinking about Mission Fifty, πŸ€” and thinking who I want to be in ten years. πŸ”Ÿ I often always took the easy way out, the slow and steady path. 🐒 I have the corner office, the desk in a private office with the brass lamp that overlooks the Capitol and the Hudson River and several garbage dumps and smoke stacks. But there is still so much wild country out there I’ve never explored. Maybe though I’m waiting too long to take the next step. But if I keep walking 🚢, try to eat healthier and save more πŸ’΅ I can build a better tomorrow.

In four weeks on February 10 the sun will be setting in the west-southwest (251Β°) at 5:21 pm,πŸŒ„ which is 35 minutes and 33 seconds later then tonight. In 2021 on that day, we had partly cloudy, snow showers and temperatures between 25 and 12 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 35 and 16 degrees. The record high of 53 degrees was set back in 1955.

Looking ahead, tommorow is , Clean Your Computer Day 🧹 is in 4 weeks, 5:30 PM Sunset πŸŒ‡ is in 5 weeks, 5:30 PM Sunset πŸŒ‡ is in 5 weeks, St. Patrick’s Day πŸ€ is in 9 weeks, 7:30 PM Sunset πŸŒ‡ is in 12 weeks, Cinco de Mayo 🀠 is in 16 weeks, National Nude Day πŸ‘± is in 26 weeks, Average High 70 πŸŽ‘ is in 33 weeks, September 🍎 is in 33 weeks, Labor Day Weekend Begins πŸ‘¨β€πŸ­ is in 33 weeks, Autumn πŸ‚ is in 36 weeks, Average Night Below Freezing 🌌 is in 10 months, Buy Nothing Day πŸ›οΈ is in 45 weeks, December πŸŽ„ is in 46 weeks, Bill of Rights Day πŸ“œ is in 48 weeks and Days are Getting Longer β˜€οΈ is in 49 weeks.

 Capitol Sunset

Map: Halfmoon Lake
Map: Otter Creek Area - North Of Chase Lake

Bayisian Probability 🎲

Bayisian Probability 🎲

The past few weeks I’ve been reading a lot about statistics and probability. I read a book called Statistics for Dummies whose audience was clearly High Schoolers and I struggled through parts of it like I did many parts of Pre Calculus in High School and Elementary Statistics in College. I get the math but the symbols always throw me off. I can do quadratic equations but they aren’t my favorite.

Then I started to read Nate Silvers’ The Signal and the Noise. Much easier read for me, and more fascinating as it looked at real life statistics. It’s easy to be mislead by incomplete data and bias, and either underweighting or overweightingaaaa priors. But using Bayisian Probability can help one overcome some of the current bias by looking back over time. Things usually continue in their current fashion and extremes ultimately revert to the means.

It really is good to keep the past in mind when thinking the future. Past success can be built on. Risk exists but can be minimized and smoothed out over time. If yesterday was good, today is better than chances are good that tomorrow will be even better than today.

I’ve long been interested in risk management and seeing the world not through the fearful panicking nature of the news media, afraid of today and not considering long term structural risk and rewards. I’m a libertarian so I tend to prefer more risk to human life and well being in exchange for more human freedom. Caution can be warranted but it shouldn’t come at the cost of human freedom and dignity.

But my real interest in statistics today is more practical – I have powerful analytical tools like R Studio and access to a remarkable amount of open data that can better explain the world around me, if only I know and apply proper statistical analysis to it. I’m no Quant or statistician and have little interest in returning to formal education but I know there is much I can learn myself.

Terrain Map: Indian Fields Before the Alcove Reservior

2022 Top Paid Educators in Albany County

2022 Top Paid Educators in Albany County

Data from extracted from SeeThroughNY. Titles aren’t available on SeeThroughNY for school districts but most are superintendents and business managers from some casual googling. But regardless it’s interesting to compare compensation between districts.

name total_pay subagency title rateofpay payyear paybasis branch
Albany City School District
Mc Kenna, Lori A $171,972.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Wilson, Cecily L $171,972.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Rohring, Kimberly J $165,431.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Bridgewater, Michele R $159,228.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Gaines-Harrell, Rosalind Z $159,199.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Berne-Knox-Westerlo Central Schools
Mundell, Timothy W $180,353.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Pitterson, Mark A $123,546.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Sloma, Susan A $114,712.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Landry, Annette D $113,300.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Galvin III, Thomas P $104,597.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Bethlehem Central Schools
Monroe, Jody L $198,668.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Hurst, David F $162,589.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Kloss, Katherine K $160,653.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Klugman, Michael D $158,662.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Kennelly-Johnston, Kathleen $153,805.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Guilderland Central Schools
Wiles, Marie T $215,661.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Sanders, Neil T $179,195.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Brabant, Peter J $150,746.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Piscitelli, Michael A $150,008.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Knowles, Lisa W $149,792.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
North Colonie Central Schools
Corr, Daniel J $213,966.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Skeals, Kathleen $206,130.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Hoot, Scott M $186,832.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Dineen, Brian P $170,233.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Lobdell, Candace H $169,693.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Ravena-Coeymans-Selkirk Central Schools
Bailey, Brian A $174,056.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Jones, Hakim I $149,661.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Engelhardt Jr, Charles F $132,100.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Patierne, Lisa A $123,670.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Neubart, Debra A $115,970.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
South Colonie Central Schools
Perry, David J $223,763.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Robilotti, Christopher J $216,843.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Backus, Timothy P $191,175.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Penn, Jill A $168,001.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Fowler, Timothy C $161,110.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Voorheesville Central Schools
Macri, Francis L $168,800.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Sapienza, Joseph C $134,902.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Southard, James P $117,000.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Jantson, Christopher D $115,691.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools
Vivenzio, Jeffrey P $114,651.00 NYSTRS – Educator NDR NDR 2022 NDR Schools

Map: Ohisa State Forest
Map: Slader Creek State Forest