Why I suspect the Texas Redistricting effort will fail 🗳️

Simply said, voters don’t like party bosses dictating how they vote. Redistricting makes a difference around the margin but you can only crack and pack districts so much. You can put weight on the scale but if you stir up a lot of angry Democrats and even Independent minded Republican learners to vote Democratic, it can very much backfire.

I think map drawers often think they are playing the ultimate chess game but it’s really just playing around the margin. If 2026 turns out to be a sweep for Democrats things could be particularly bad for Republicans in Texas – as not only are they stirring up the angry masses – they’re making formerly safe Republican incumbents riskier by cracking Democratic districts and putting those Democrats into Republican districts. Moreover it’s certain blue states will retaliate with their own mid-census redistricting efforts.

Politicians have long put their fingers on the scales in elections. Yet it seems those efforts are fraught and demographics and voting patterns change as people move and views change. Rigging elections can work but they can also be wildly unpredictable. I’m not convinced it’s as devastating as some believe it might be.