What the Misery Index Can Tell Us About the Health of the US Economy
What the Misery Index Can Tell Us About the Health of the US Economy
"The Misery Index grew famous during the candidacy of Jimmy Carter (a man not known for projecting or encouraging misery), and he used it with great effect against his rival in the 1976 presidential campaign. The index was then in the low teens, having come down from the peak of 19.9% it had reached shortly after Gerald Ford took office. Nevertheless, a figure in the low teens still seemed too much to the electorate, and Carter won easily. However, Carter's own Misery Index peaked at 21.98% in June 1980, when the next election was in full swing. Carter was hoisted by his own petard and lost in a landslide."
"Those numbers are worth keeping in mind as we contemplate a current economy frequently referred to in less than glowing terms, and in light of a market that has recently turned hostile on the bulls. Currently, the Misery Index stands at a scant 5.3%, with the latest unemployment figures coming in at 5.1% and inflation at a mere 0.2% for September. That's the lowest the index has been since the spring of 1956 -- the exact point in time when the end of the first season of Happy Days is set. Happy Days first aired in 1974, when the Misery Index was just gaining notoriety."