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El Nino and Upstate New York

A strong El Niño typically leads to warmer-than-average temperatures and highly variable rainfall during the summer months in Albany, NY. While El Niño’s strongest atmospheric effects on North America occur during the winter, its decaying or lingering phases in summer alter the jet stream, frequently pushing hotter air masses into the Northeast. 

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Historical summer data from the National Centers for Environmental Information during past strong El Niño cycles shows a clear upward trend in average summer temperatures:

  • Higher daily maximums: Recent strong El Niño summers (such as 2016) saw average daily highs climb to 83°F, compared to cooler maximums like 79°F in 1998.
  • Warmer nights: Average summer minimum temperatures have steadily risen, staying around 60°F to 61°F, which reduces overnight cooling relief during heat waves.

Rainfall during an El Niño summer in upstate New York is less predictable and depends heavily on regional jet stream patterns, alternating between dry spells and sudden heavy downpours: 

  • High variability: Total summer precipitation has historically fluctuated from a dry 6.71 inches in 1983 to a much wetter 12.69 inches in 2016.
  • Storm risks: A stronger southern jet stream can fuel localized, intense thunderstorm systems, increasing the risk of flash flooding even during otherwise dry summer stretches. 

How many truly sweltering days are there in Albany? 🌞

Albany, NY averages 10.7 days per year where the temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F, according to recent data from the National Centers for Environmental Information

  • 2025: 11 days
  • 2024: 13 days
  • 2023: 8 days
  • 2022: 22 days (an exceptionally hot summer)
  • 2021: 1 day
  • 2020: 9 days 

Robert Treman Pool

While 90 degree days are relatively uncommon in Albany, much of the summer it typically reaches 80 degrees. On average in Albany, there are 78 days per year where the temperature reaches or exceeds 80. Warm weather in the 80s typically spans from May through September, though outlier days occasionally pop up earlier in the spring or later in the autumn: 

  • The Bulk of the Heat: July is the hottest month of the year, averaging a daily high of 82°F.
  • Earliest 80° Day: March 9, 2016 (81°F).
  • Latest 80° Day: November 2, 1950 (82°F).

In recent years, longer stretches of weather above 80 degrees has become more common in Albany.

  • 44 Days: June 28 – August 10, 2018 (The all-time record)
  • 36 Days: June 29 – August 3, 2020
  • 35 Days: July 6 – August 9, 2022
  • 35 Days: July 2 – August 5, 2024
  • 30 Days: June 22 – July 21, 2019 

Pool

When factoring in humidity (the Heat Index), the National Weather Service in Albany typically issues Heat Advisories when the heat index is expected to reach 95°F to 99°F for at least two consecutive hours. On average, the capital region experiences about 3 to 5 days per year where humidity pushes the feels-like temperature into this truly oppressive category.

Swimming Pool

In Albany, dew points above 70°F (21°C) are considered oppressive, while anything above 72°F to 74°F represents tropical, extreme humidity for the Capital Region. The most notable periods of prolonged, high dew points in Albany include:

August 11–13, 2021 (The Stickiest Recent Stretch) – While 2021 had very few 90-degree days, it hosted one of the most humid tropical airmasses in recent history.

  • Peak Dew Point: 73.0°F on August 11 and August 13.
  • Impact: Humidity reached 97% to 100%, preventing any overnight cooling and creating dangerously high heat indices despite lower air temperatures.

July 5–10, 2024 (Embedded in the 35-Day Heat Streak) – During the 35-day stretch of 80°F+ weather last summer, a massive plume of moisture settled over upstate New York.

  • Peak Dew Point: 72.0°F sustained over multiple days (specifically peaking on July 5 and July 10).
  • Impact: This period triggered widespread National Weather Service Heat Advisories due to heat index values surging well past 95°F.

August 11–13, 2016 (The Muggy August Spike) – This three-day window saw a severe spike in tropical moisture right in the middle of August.

  • Peak Dew Point: 73.0°F on August 13.
  • Impact: Maximum relative humidity spiked to 97%, causing dense, heavy air that lingered even through the late-night hours.

August 1, 2006 (The All-Time Recent Record) – The highest single-day dew point recorded at the main climate station in the last two decades occurred during a severe early-August heatwave.

  • Peak Dew Point: 73.9°F on August 1, 2006.
  • Impact: This combined with an air temperature of 94°F to create the most oppressive heat index of the mid-2000s.
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