May 14, 2026 | Andy Arthur.org

After getting burned on that bike I part I ordered from Amazon, and noting how often the stuff I order from the web retailer not only comes in unrecycable plastic but also is low quality and needs to quickly be discarded, I’ve become increasingly convinced that Amazon is little more then a trash generation service requiring a large waste basket and weekly trash service to get rid of all of the left overs.

I get the appeal of weekly trash truck – no smelly, toxic burn barrels full of plastic – a lot of it from Amazon, and the conveince of not having to haul all those cans to transfer station. Still I can’t help to think a lot of that trash doesn’t come from the grocery store but culture of convenience that Amazon offers. That only encourages people to buy more junk, both from their website and paper and plastic wrapped convenience meals sold to those who choose the easy lifestyle that involves more dumping to distant landfills and less composting and burning on site.

The Thucydides Trap is a political theory stating that when an emerging power threatens to displace an established ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes war between them nearly inevitable. The concept is primarily used to analyze the tense geopolitical dynamic between the United States and China.

Origins and Concept

Ancient Context: The term was coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison. It is derived from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who analyzed the Peloponnesian War. Thucydides famously noted: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
The Mechanism: The theory suggests that as the rising power becomes more assertive and confident, the dominant power grows increasingly fearful of losing its influence. This mutual fear, mistrust, and rivalry can spark conflict even if neither side actually wants it.

The Historical Data

Allison and his research team at the Harvard Belfer Center analyzed 16 historical instances where a rising power challenged an established one:

12 of the 16 cases resulted in direct military conflict (e.g., World War I, the rise of the German Empire displacing British dominance).
4 of the 16 cases managed to avoid war through careful statecraft, compromise, and painful adjustments on both sides (e.g., the Cold War, the rise of the United States displacing the British Empire in the late 19th and early 20th centuries).

Modern Relevance: The US and China

Today, the theory is most prominently applied to US-China relations. China is the rising power challenging the United States’ long-held global and regional dominance.

The Debate: Many scholars and policymakers worry that trade disputes, technological competition, and military posturing could plunge the two superpowers into “case number 17.”
The Warning: Chinese and US leaders often reference the trap as a cautionary tale, with experts advocating for a strategy of “peaceful competition” rather than fatalistic conflict.