Republican Party

A felon for President

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I am pretty sure either Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony unless there is a hung jury with his New York criminal case. Whether or not the case is reversed on appeal, it seems likely that one of the leading presidential candidates will be a convicted felon. This means at least in the State of Florida, he won’t be allowed to vote for himself for President unless of course the legislature decides to change law, just for him.

Not that I’m convinced that this is a bad thing. For too long government has been held in too high of regard, the decisions of millions of government bureaucrats viewed as virtuous by default. There has been a reverence for the American government and those who work for it, even though government workers are just humans with as many flaws and bad decisions that are common not only in private business but in the administration of government.

Government, and our country needs to be knocked down a peg. Government workers, the courts, the police should be viewed with a degree of contempt. They should be looked down as a necessary evil, but something that is not virtuous but as servants of people. A leading presidential candidate who is a felon may forever change how we view our country, start a true discussion of the size and scope of government.

A popular idea in liberal circles lately is that Trump and his allies are rigging the system to allow him and other Republicans to pull off a win in a close election 💡

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I mean, they’re not wrong. The Republicans in red states are being terribly naughty, exploiting conspiracy theories and raw power to make it possible to turn the tables in their favor during extraordinarily close elections.

But to call that anti-democratic, a threat to democracy or down right facist is a step too far in my book. Maybe Republicans will use some sneaky and unfair means to turn the tables in an extraordinarily close election but it’s not the end of the world – there is always another election for whatever office their exploiting power in two to six years, and many other offices will be up for election in the mean time.

The fact is you can sometimes out maneuver an opponent to win a close election. But in that case whoever wins still represents close to a majority of voters. And the candidate who wins on dubious means is unlikely to be that popular, having bathed in stench of dubious means of winning. You’ll have the reins of power for a few years but your opponents party will have all the excitement and likely will deliver majorities to Congress and state houses in the mid terms.

Elections are an approximation of public sentiment. By definition, elections are rigged by all kinds of laws and policies designed to favor incumbents, the status quo and the party in power. But power tends to be destructive in a democracy, often the highest flying stars in politics are those that are the fastest to crash and burn.

I’m not worried about democracy. It will mumble along, even if Trump manages to play the system and get a second term in 2024 with a minority of voters and makes a bigger fool of himself. He’ll have his term, he’ll probably bumble through it like his first term and be gone.

And then there will be another election and life goes on.

Moving out of Upstate New York won’t make you rich

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President Donald Trump has many times suggested that people should move from Upstate New York to places where there are more jobs. In his quote to the Wall Street Journal about two years ago:

“You’re going to need people to work in these massive plants,” Trump told the newspaper. “I’m going to start explaining to people: When you have an area that just isn’t working like upper New York state, where people are getting very badly hurt, and then you’ll have another area 500 miles away where you can’t get people, I’m going to explain, you can leave. It’s OK. Don’t worry about your house.”

This is pretty solid economic advice – people should consider moving to places where there are better jobs – so they have more choices in employment, more possibilities to make more money.

But I’m sure the President is aware there is more to relocating than just selling your home, renting a trailer to tow behind your pickup and moving to a different part of the country. It’s hard to leave your family and friends to move from your hometown to a place where there are more jobs.

Moreover, nowhere are sustainable, long term jobs popping up in the rural countryside or small towns, all of the action in American capitalism is happening in the big cities and metropolitan regions. Like New York City or Los Angeles. You can’t expect to move from rural or small town New York to somewhere in the south or Midwest and instantly have a better life. Part of the price of living in farm country or the mountains is lower wages and less economic opportunities.

Simply said automation and mechanization has eliminated a great deal of rural and small town jobs. Almost all Americans economic activity occurs in large Metropolitan Areas and their suburbs. Most rural areas and small cities are almost entirely dependent on government jobs and welfare, such as school teachers, highway workers, and social security payments even if the legacy industries like agriculture and manufacturing which employee few are highlighted by the politicians. While living in the country is cheaper – you can meet your basic needs more on farm or on the homestead, you still are giving up economic gain by not moving to a big city.

Now to be sure there are political reasons to consider moving to another state – gun laws, restrictions on fireworks, open burning, or cannabis – for example. Rural freedom is better in red states for sure, where the government is closer in sync with the needs of farm families and other rural residents. Or you just want to pay less in taxes in exchange for less services. Rural states lack the costly infrastructure and legacy needs of big states Those are valid reasons for going red state for country living. But not necessarily alone in the search for a better job when most of America outside of metropolitan areas is struggling.

Trump can’t post $464M bond in New York civil case, lawyers say – POLITICO

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Trump can’t post $464M bond in New York civil case, lawyers say – POLITICO

NEW YORK — Donald Trump told an appellate court here Monday that he can’t obtain a bond for the full amount of the civil fraud judgment against him — more than $450 million, including interest — raising the possibility that the state attorney general’s office could begin to seize his assets unless the court agrees to halt the judgment while the former president appeals the verdict.

Trump’s lawyers said in a court filing that “ongoing diligent efforts have proven that a bond in the judgment’s full amount is a ‘practical impossibility,’” adding that those efforts “have included approaching about 30 surety companies through 4 separate brokers.”

Put up or shut up

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That is probably the golden rule of politics.

I am not worried about Donald Trump being re-elected with his anti-Democratic tendencies. He’s a politician and he either will deliver results to his constituencies or quickly become irrelevant.

Part of the reason why Donald Trump is doing so well politically currently is his first term was quite successful in the eyes of conservatives. Behind all the noise, he succeeded in delivering tax relief, and a Supreme Court that is reworking America in a more conservative image especially on social issues like guns and abortion. The conservative rights revolution seems to be well underway.

A self pardon of Donald Trump is likely to be wildly unpopular. Likewise using the government’s prosecuting powers under law to go after political enemies is likely to lead to significant drop in the president’s support. But on the other hand, bringing the justice department to heel and focusing them on conservative priorities is likely to score him points both with the Republican base and his fellow conservative legislators. Using unconventional methods may be unpopular with Democrats but in recent years executive power has been expanding as politics has become more contentious. But the moment that Trump stops delivering for the nation and particular his base, he’s likely to fall out of power.

Using the levers of power isn’t anti-democratic. It is effective. Levers of power aren’t limited to only one party or ideology. If Trump discovers a new lever of power, then the next Democratic candidate to be elected into the White House is also likely to use it too. Or it’s possible that if the public, especially those in the opposing party will find the power grab to be so morally repugnant that they remove that power from the executive by passing new laws reining in the President.

Don’t like Trump? I don’t like him much either. So don’t vote for him. And know he will be gone in four years, and you’ll have yet another candidate better to your liking in the White House. Or Congress in two years.

I don’t think Trump in 2024 is the worst thing ever

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He’s also not likely to be the greatest president ever, but probably will do okay in the job. I think Joe Biden might be a better choice, but I’m willing to accept whoever the voters chose come next November.

Trump has been excellent on the second amendment and appointing pro-gun and conservative judges throughout the judiciary. He’s been a brash voice for change, not stuck in the old ways of doing things in Washington DC. He represents a new way of thinking, not all good, but different then the mindset that has dominated national politics for much too long. He would be a good check on Congress, especially if the Democrats control one or both houses. He would slow or roll back some of the over-reach of the Biden administration.

That said, I hardly am a fan of his over the top rhetoric and his lawlessness both as President and thereafter. You would would hope the President would have respect for the law and institution, choosing to obey long-standing social norms, rather then breaking them without pause. I also think a second term of Trump would undermine much of the progress at least temporarily on climate change, most notably the Clean Car Standards, though I doubt the auto companies would slide too far backwards, as everybody knows electrification is the future and climate change remains a real threat, even if the temporary occupant of the White House is in denial.

If anything, I think this world is coming to an end rhetoric around the upcoming election is harmful. Do vote, if convenient as it’s your chance to make a difference around the edges of politics. But don’t take the election personally, and don’t act like the world is coming to an end regardless of who ultimately ends up in the White House come 2025. Chances are if you don’t turn on the television, you won’t even know who is in White House that year, and whoever the occupant is that year in the White House, chances are the worse they’ll give you is indigestion watching the news after dinner.