Punxsutawney Phil is seeing his shadow less these days compared to 30 years ago:

1887-1985: No Shadow 13%. (9 times, no shadow. 69 times, shadow, 10 times, no record.)
1986-2016: No Shadow 42%. (9 times, no shadow. 21 times, shadow.)

Statistically, the average since 1887, is the Ground Hog doesn’t see his shadow 14% of the time. But if you look at the most recent 30 year average, you see the Ground Hog is much more likely (42%) to predict an early spring.