The 2010 Andrew Cuomo vs. Carl Paladino race was an interesting one to consider in 2014. In Upstate, the race may not be as heavily slanted towards the governor as it was in 2010, but it will likely follow similar patterns, and people generally do not alter their views from year to year -- and turn out in 2010 and 2014 is expected to be similar.
This is based on the LATFOR redistricting files which can be downloaded from http://latfor.state.ny.us/data/. They provide data from the 2006, 2008, and 2010 elections.
More maps, photos from Cuomo-Paladino 2010 Results.