Ground Hog Day

That day when we hope that winter comes to an early end, and then look forward for another 2-3 months of wintery weather.

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Ground Hog Day
Ice Storm 2008
Valentines Day

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Odds of Punxsutawney Phil Seeing His Shadow

With this cold weather of recent, many have been questioning when spring will come. Well, statistically, according to the world's most accurate forecaster, early spring is rare. Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 109 times or about 79 percent of the time. He saw his shadow last year. Early spring is still quite rare, but I wonder with climate change, if he will start seeing his shadow less frequently.

Six weeks ago today, was Thursday, February 2nd. The Ground Hog pronounced that there would be six more weeks of winter, exactly six weeks ago today. Today, it may reach 29 degrees with blowing snow. Therefore, Punxsutawney Phil lied.

Punxsutawney Phil is seeing his shadow less these days compared to 30 years ago:

1887-1985: No Shadow 13%. (9 times, no shadow. 69 times, shadow, 10 times, no record.)
1986-2016: No Shadow 42%. (9 times, no shadow. 21 times, shadow.)

Statistically, the average since 1887, is the Ground Hog doesn’t see his shadow 14% of the time. But if you look at the most recent 30 year average, you see the Ground Hog is much more likely (42%) to predict an early spring.

Extended Forecast for Punxsutawney PA.

Good news. It's seems unlikely at this point that Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow. It will however be warm in the morning for those going down to Punxsutawney, PA to see the ground hog.

The Punxsutawney Forecast:

Monday Night - Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Tuesday - A chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night - Rain likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%.