Peak Oil

The 1973 Oil Crisis

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45 years ago this week was the start of the oil crisis. But has America learned much in that time? It's debatable.

Sticking Your Head Into the Sand Over Oil

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There is a popular Internet meme that goes along these lines:

“I am poor. So when I hear my car making a noise,
rather then taking it to the repair shop, I just turn up the radio.”

This kind of reminds me of the hype over fracking for oil and gas. It was a good distraction for a while — and indeed the United States got a big boost in it’s oil production for a while — it seems like as fast as the oil glut came it is now going away. A booming global economy has expanded the world’s thirst for this economy, and with Middle East production on a decline, it seems like it’s only a matter of time that we remember the serious energy crisis our world faces in the future. ⛽

There are politicians all over that like to believe we live in a sea of oil, and that suburbia will last forever. Indeed, a good portion of the green minded people think that once we switch over to electric plug-in cars powered by distant solar cells, motoring can go on care free, with no concerns about the resources being consumed or emissions being produced away from the tailpipe. But at some point, no matter how long you stick year head into the ground, our long term habit of expanding the population and feeling richer by burning more oil each year, will come to bite us. 🐲

Nobody knows when the global oil crisis will truly bite us. High oil prices once again may spur conservation and innovation like new fracking techniques 🛢 but the truth is the oil fueled party can’t go on forever. I like my big jacked up truck, but I’m not stupid — I know the world of ever growing demand for oil is going to be confronted by reality at some point. And the next result isn’t going to be pretty. Climate change, expensive energy, massive reductions in consumption are going to be the future. While there may be some benefit to some, the next effect will be serious impacts to millions who are forced to make dramatic changes in how they live and go through life.

How Prepared Am I For the Coming Shocks?

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I often wonder how prepared I am for the overwhelming evidence that in coming decades the economy and society at large is going to face increased crisis over dwindling oil supplies with increased demand for energy, with climate change pushing our infrastructure and natural resources into crisis. ⛽

I am carefully investing, taking advantage of grow of the economy. But what if people like Bill McKibbean and nearly ever other rational person is right — growth is not indefinite? 📈What happens if the stock market and economy stop growing larger each year — at least over the long-range horizon. Then I guess I’m screwed, as most of my investments are market based — diversified yes, but still based on the premises of a forever growing economy.🌎

I do spend a lot of time reading and studying videos about bushcraft, off-grid living, hunting and fishing. I’m probably more comfortable in the wilderness then many Americans. But I’m no serious outdoorsman, I rely on the plastic bagged food and cheap oil as much as anybody else. If the markets are in a permanent state of collapse, the funding I need to buy land and my off-grid cabin will vanish.📉

I am not willing to plunk a bunch of money into gold,  💰 or other questionable assets. Even land or a house that I’m not going to use for a few decades seems like a bad investment. The market, carefully invested in a place is to be if you want to grow your money for tomorrow. But I think many people will be in the same boat as me if the economy permanently changes, although I think with careful saving, and no debt, I’ll still come out ahead.

And just as important as money, learning new skills, especially with natural resources and the basics that make up our world 🤔is invaluable in succeeding in an economy that may collapse in the future as pressures in the oil markets and climate change take their toll on society.

Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage? | Our Finite World

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United States oil consumption in 2012 will be about 4.7 million barrels a day, or 20%, lower than it would have been, if the pre-2005 trend in oil consumption growth of 1.5% per year had continued. This drop in consumption is no doubt related to a rise in oil prices starting about 2004.

via Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage? | Our Finite World.

Being Uneconomical for an Uncertain Future

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.There is a common line of thought that argues that we should undertake a massive restructuring of the economy, even if it has no current clear benefit, in preparation for some dramatic future change like climate change or peak oil. Folks like Bill McKibbean have the logic, unless we make drastic changes now, the future will be bleak.

Their logic reminds one a lot of the logic of a High School Guidance Counselor, pushing over-priced college educations at so-called “select institutions” that are very over pricd. They argue unless one gets an expensive college education, the future will be bleak. They say, unless you go seriously in debt, you will have no future and be without a good job.

Trees Lines

Nobody today can tell us for sure about when or if climate change will occur, or for that matter what the impacts of peak oil will be. We have projections and models that extrapolate data based on today’s conditions and projected changes, but they probably are not accurate as effects rarely are linear. It�s quite possible that effect our growing use of fossil fuels may be far different then anything yet predicted.

Yet, it�s also hard to object to efficiency standards and pollution controls on power plants that benefit society now. More energy while burning less fuel will benefit the economy by lowering costs over the long-run. More fuel efficient cars, while possibly more expensive up front, will provide drivers with lower fuel bills over the car�s life. Good standards that improve efficiency, conserve resources, and reduce pollution, help us now.

Medusa

I disagree with folk like Bill McKibbean who argue for a radical transformation of the economy based on a projection of climate change or peak oil. We should work to conserve resources and clean up our generating plants, but not because of a future projection, but to improve economic efficiency and the quality of our lives today. If with incidentally also help change the projection for bad things to happen tomorrow, then all the better.