Moderately well understood

"For decades, economists have puzzled over the reduction in macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. and world economies after the mid-1980s: In the last 25 years or so of the 20th century (highlighted by the blue bar in the graph), domestic output, employment, and inflation all fluctuated far less than they had in prior years. The data make the stabilization of the economy clear, yet economists haven’t reached consensus over the causes or duration of the Great Moderation."

"The Federal Reserve points to monetary policy as a primary cause of the moderation, through orderly responses to inflation and GDP changes after the Great Inflation of the 1980s. Instead of waiting for the signs of economic recession or rising inflation to appear before acting, as was common in the “go-stop” practices of the 1960s and 1970s, the Federal Reserve began following a more systematic, rules-based approach. Another proposed cause is the structural change of the economy and the labor market. In the 1980s, labor patterns shifted away from manufacturing and toward less-volatile sectors. Also, new technology sped up communication and allowed producers to track inventory and demand more easily, leading to more stable output over time."

"It’s easy to look to clear economic and policy changes as contributors to the Great Moderation, but there may be another factor at play: luck. Statistical models such as those proposed by Stock and Watson or Galí and Gambetti assert that, although some economic shocks did occur during the early part of the Great Moderation, they were less severe and better handled than those of the 1970s. While others dispute this claim, it still brings to mind the question: If luck is responsible, how long will it last?"

Good morning! Happy Sunday. Next Sunday is Average High is 60. After the morning’s rain showers, it’s started to clear out and is mostly sunny and 74 degrees in Delmar, NY. Breezy, 16 mph breeze from the south with gusts up to 26 mph. Rather sticky for second week of August from the rain, with the dew point around 68 degrees. I am actually surprised how quickly it’s clearing this morning now that wwe are heading into the 11 o’clock hour.

Today will have a slight chance of showers before noon, then a slight chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high of 82 degrees at 3pm. 19 degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 68 at 10am. Going to be a fairly hazy, hot, autumn day. Indian Summer. The breeze will help though. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. A year ago, we had mostly cloudy skies. The high last year was 66 degrees. The record high of 79 was set in 2011.

It’s going to be a remarkably nice day and with some blue skies, it should be good for whatever outdoor plans I make. Maybe I will go to Five Rivers or maybe the Wolf Hill Preserve or maybe Thacher Park. The colors might be better up at a higher elevation, although I don’t know, there wasn’t much color last week. I don’t think I feel like driving up to the Adirondacks or Catskills though, especially as the sun sets so early this time of year, and it will be pouring rain by morning. 

Before I do that, I want to walk down to the library and upload the maps I’ve been working on. I will try to get down there by noon time when they first open so I hae the afternoon to enjoy the hot and humid weather. It’s almost hot enough to warrant finding a swimming hole, but most would probably be raging after this morning’s rain. I took the kayak racks off my truck to wash it yesterday, and I am in no rush to get it muddy by driving on muddy roads either.

The sun will set at 6:23 pm with dusk around 6:51 pm, which is one minute and 41 seconds earlier than yesterday. At sunset, look for partly cloudy conditions and 76 degrees. The dew point will be a sticky 65 degrees. There will be a west breeze at 7 mph. Today will have 11 hours and 21 minutes of daytime, a decrease of 2 minutes and 49 seconds over yesterday.

Tonight will rain, mainly after 2am. Low of 62 degrees at 6am. 20 degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 65 at 6pm. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. In 2016, we had cloudy skies. It got down to 46 degrees. The record low of 27 occurred back in 2001.

As previously noted, next Sunday is Average High is 60 when the sun will be setting at 6:12 pm with dusk at 6:40 pm. On that day in 2016, we had heavy fog, freezing fog, shallow fog, patches of fog, mist, mostly cloudy skies and temperatures between 63 and 28 degrees. Typically, the high temperature is 60 degrees. We hit a record high of 86 back in 1897.