2017 March 23

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March 2017
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Questions? Need an updated map? Email me andy@andyarthur.org.

Google Maps: 2016 Net Migration

This map shows the net migration in the United States during 2016. This is one component of population change -- birth and death rates are another component. It is an interesting map to look at it as it gives you an idea on where people are choosing to locate to in the United States and where people are moving away from. Generally, people are continuing to move out of the salt belt to places with more sun.

The difference between domestic in-migration to an area and domestic out-migration from the same area during a specified time period. Domestic in- and out-migration consist of moves where both the origin and the destination are within the United States (excluding Puerto Rico). The net domestic migration rate expresses net domestic migration during a specified time period as a proportion of an area's population at the midpoint of the time period. Rates are expressed per 1,000 population.

Data Source: County and Metro Area Population Estimates. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2017/20170323_popestimates.html

Good evening! Sunny and 36 degrees in City of Albany. There is a west-northwest breeze at 13 mph. A rather cool evening for late March, but one must enjoy the sunlight before we get stuck with a week of ample rain. At least that should help the snow melt away. 

The sun will set at 7:11 pm with dusk around 7:39 pm, which is one minute and 9 seconds later than yesterday. At sunset, look for mostly clear conditions and 31 degrees. There will be a west breeze at 8 mph.

Bus was running a little bit late this evening because Interstate 787 was backed up onto the South Mall Arterial but traffic southbound on 787 so we are making up time. You can complain about the dirty snow and the cold but skies are quite blue without clouds but they aren’t expected to last. 

Tonight will have increasing clouds, with a low of 19 degrees at 11pm. 10 degrees below normal. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable. In 2016, it got down to 33 degrees with periods of rain. The record low of 0 occurred back in 1875. Warming up at the night progresses but we will still see some snow, ice and road salt come the morning. 

Waning Crescent Moon tonight with 26% illuminated. The moon will rise around 2:51 am. The New Moon is on Tuesday night with chance of rain expected. The Full “Pink” Moon is on Tuesday, April 11th. The sun will rise at 6:50 am with the first light at 6:22 am, which is one minute and 45 seconds earlier than yesterday. Tonight will have 11 hours and 37 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 55 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will have snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before noon, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet between noon and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. High of 40 degrees at 6pm. Seven degrees below normal. South wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. A year ago, we had rain and a high of 59 degrees. The record high of 69 was set in 1976. 5.5 inches of snow fell back in 1956.

Not a particularly nice weekend on tap. Saturday, a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Light and variable wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Not a wash out.  Sunday, freezing rain likely before 8am, then a chance of rain between 8am and 5pm, then a chance of drizzle after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Typical average high for the weekend is 48 degrees. Hopefully we will get some good soaking rains that melt the snow and reduce the fire risks. 

In four weeks on April 20 the sun will be setting at 7:43 pm, which is 31 minutes and 59 seconds later then today. In 2016 on that day, we had mostly sunny skies and temperatures between 62 and 42 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 61 and 39 degrees. The record high of 93 degrees was set back in 1941.

Looking ahead, Start of June is in 10 weeks. At one level that seems like a long ways away but I know time goes by quickly and it will be here before one realizes. 

Population Change in New York Counties, 2010-2016

Every rural county in New York State lost population between the 2010 and 2016, with the exception of Ontario County, as there is new suburban sprawl in Victor associated with Rochester.

The only counties which have gained population between 2010 and 2016 in New York State are the largest counties in New York: Rensselaer, Ontario, Erie, Monroe, Tompkins, Albany, Orange, Saratoga, Rockland, Nassau, Westchester Counties, along with Staten Island, Manhattan, Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn.

Data Source: County and Metro Area Population Estimates, 2016-2010. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2017/20170323_popestimates.html

Explaining The Rising Death Rate In Middle-Aged White People

"In 2015, when researchers Ann Case and Angus Deaton discovered that death rates had been rising dramatically since 1999 among middle-aged white Americans, they weren't sure why people were dying younger, reversing decades of longer life expectancy."

"But whites with college degrees haven't suffered the same lack of economic opportunity, and haven't seen the same loss of life expectancy. The study was published Thursday in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity."

Tomorrow morning, we will be waking up to a sloppy commute, with a mix of snow and ice turning to rain by afternoon. The rain will continue on and off through the weekend into next week. Temperatures are expected to moderate over the weekend to close to normal, although we have to watch for periods of freezing rain through the next week. I am not sure if you can say March will be leaving us like a lamb, at least not an ice-covered lamb that smells like wet wool.

Weather Summary
Today. Sunny and 37 degrees , 12 max wind chill, 7:12 sunset.
Tonight. Increasing Clouds and 18 degrees , 18 max wind chill, 6:49 sunrise.
Friday. Chance of Snow then Chance of Rain/Sleet and 43 degrees , 7:13 sunset.
Friday Night. Chance of Rain and 38 degrees , 6:47 sunrise.
Saturday. Rain is likely and 50 degrees , 7:14 sunset.
Saturday Night. Chance of Rain then Rain
/ Freezing Rain is likely and
30 degrees , 6:46 sunrise.
Sunday. Rain/Freezing Rain is likely
then Rain is likely and
41 degrees , 7:15 sunset.
Sunday Night. Rain is likely
then Rain/Freezing Rain is likely and
32 degrees , 6:44 sunrise.
Monday. Rain/Freezing Rain is likely
then Rain is likely and
43 degrees , 7:16 sunset.
Monday Night. Chance of Rain and 38 degrees , 6:42 sunrise.
Tuesday. Chance of Rain and 47 degrees , 7:17 sunset.
Tuesday Night. Chance of Rain
then Chance of Rain/Snow and
34 degrees , 6:40 sunrise.
Wednesday. Chance of Rain/Snow
then Chance of Rain and
48 degrees , 7:18 sunset.

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