2017 March 23

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March 2017
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Questions? Need an updated map? Email me andy@andyarthur.org.

Google Maps: 2016 Net Migration

This map shows the net migration in the United States during 2016. This is one component of population change -- birth and death rates are another component. It is an interesting map to look at it as it gives you an idea on where people are choosing to locate to in the United States and where people are moving away from. Generally, people are continuing to move out of the salt belt to places with more sun.

The difference between domestic in-migration to an area and domestic out-migration from the same area during a specified time period. Domestic in- and out-migration consist of moves where both the origin and the destination are within the United States (excluding Puerto Rico). The net domestic migration rate expresses net domestic migration during a specified time period as a proportion of an area's population at the midpoint of the time period. Rates are expressed per 1,000 population.

Data Source: County and Metro Area Population Estimates. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2017/20170323_popestimates.html

Good evening! Sunny and 36 degrees in City of Albany. There is a west-northwest breeze at 13 mph. A rather cool evening for late March, but one must enjoy the sunlight before we get stuck with a week of ample rain. At least that should help the snow melt away. 

The sun will set at 7:11 pm with dusk around 7:39 pm, which is one minute and 9 seconds later than yesterday. At sunset, look for mostly clear conditions and 31 degrees. There will be a west breeze at 8 mph.

Bus was running a little bit late this evening because Interstate 787 was backed up onto the South Mall Arterial but traffic southbound on 787 so we are making up time. You can complain about the dirty snow and the cold but skies are quite blue without clouds but they aren’t expected to last. 

Tonight will have increasing clouds, with a low of 19 degrees at 11pm. 10 degrees below normal. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable. In 2016, it got down to 33 degrees with periods of rain. The record low of 0 occurred back in 1875. Warming up at the night progresses but we will still see some snow, ice and road salt come the morning. 

Waning Crescent Moon tonight with 26% illuminated. The moon will rise around 2:51 am. The New Moon is on Tuesday night with chance of rain expected. The Full “Pink” Moon is on Tuesday, April 11th. The sun will rise at 6:50 am with the first light at 6:22 am, which is one minute and 45 seconds earlier than yesterday. Tonight will have 11 hours and 37 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 55 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will have snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before noon, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet between noon and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. High of 40 degrees at 6pm. Seven degrees below normal. South wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. A year ago, we had rain and a high of 59 degrees. The record high of 69 was set in 1976. 5.5 inches of snow fell back in 1956.

Not a particularly nice weekend on tap. Saturday, a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Light and variable wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Not a wash out.  Sunday, freezing rain likely before 8am, then a chance of rain between 8am and 5pm, then a chance of drizzle after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Typical average high for the weekend is 48 degrees. Hopefully we will get some good soaking rains that melt the snow and reduce the fire risks. 

In four weeks on April 20 the sun will be setting at 7:43 pm, which is 31 minutes and 59 seconds later then today. In 2016 on that day, we had mostly sunny skies and temperatures between 62 and 42 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 61 and 39 degrees. The record high of 93 degrees was set back in 1941.

Looking ahead, Start of June is in 10 weeks. At one level that seems like a long ways away but I know time goes by quickly and it will be here before one realizes. 

Population for MTA Region and Upstate, 2010-2016

One way to divide the state up is by MTA Region versus other parts of the state. The metropolitan region of the state continues to grow while upstate loses population. Back in 2010, 67.3% of the state's population was estimated to reside in MTA Region, while in 2016 it was estimated that 68.1% of the state's population resides in the MTA Region.

New York City is the fastest growing part of the state, while the Quarter Pounders (Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland), Long Island (Nassau, Suffolk), and Westchester have seen a slight growth in population. Upstate has seen a small decline each year in population, although it's decline is small compared to the growth in New York City.

Data Source: County and Metro Area Population Estimates. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2017/20170323_popestimates.html

Population Change in New York Counties, 2010-2016

Every rural county in New York State lost population between the 2010 and 2016, with the exception of Ontario County, as there is new suburban sprawl in Victor associated with Rochester.

The only counties which have gained population between 2010 and 2016 in New York State are the largest counties in New York: Rensselaer, Ontario, Erie, Monroe, Tompkins, Albany, Orange, Saratoga, Rockland, Nassau, Westchester Counties, along with Staten Island, Manhattan, Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn.

Data Source: County and Metro Area Population Estimates, 2016-2010. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2017/20170323_popestimates.html

Explaining The Rising Death Rate In Middle-Aged White People

"In 2015, when researchers Ann Case and Angus Deaton discovered that death rates had been rising dramatically since 1999 among middle-aged white Americans, they weren't sure why people were dying younger, reversing decades of longer life expectancy."

"But whites with college degrees haven't suffered the same lack of economic opportunity, and haven't seen the same loss of life expectancy. The study was published Thursday in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity."