2017 March 12
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Good evening! A very beautiful full moon tonight. It’s the Worm Moon. While the land is covered with beautiful moonlight, it is frigid outside. Partly clear and 15 degrees in Delmar, NY. There is a west-northwest breeze at 10 mph. The current wind chill is 2. Pretty darn cold out there.
Bought a waffle iron today. Hopefully it will work well and make a good quick breakfast that is almost as easy as the frozen waffles with a better taste and lower price over the long run. I usually eat waffles 4-5 times a week with about 3 lbs a week of frozen fruit. I find it to be a quite healthy and delicious breakfast. Seems like a nice machine, although I was a bit annoyed that it was packaged in styrofoam. At least hopefully I’ll get a lot of use out of it.
Sunday dinner at my parents house was pretty good. They made pork roast and I baked up frosted brownies. Went grocery shopping for the week. Should be a good week. Made up a few more dashboard videos that I’m currently compressing on my laptop to upload to YouTube and share later in the week.
Experimenting with ffmpeg to merge video files together and strip the audio. This seems like the fastest way to put together the many minute long dash cam videos it cranks out. Also playing with the ffmpeg compression options to see if I can make a good high resolution video without the compression artifacts that are particularly noticeable on the trees as I’ve been getting on YouTube. Editing is fine with Openshot but it’s a pain to merge together a ton of minute long video clips from the dash cam and I’ve forgetten at times to strip the audio which leaves me singing along with the radio and getting copyright strikes on my videos which kind of suck as I don’t like unnecessary ads.
Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low of seven degrees at 5am. 18 degrees below normal. Maximum wind chill around 2 at 10pm; Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. In 2016, it got down to 42 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. The record low of -6 occurred back in 1885. Not going to break a record but still really cold for March.
Full “Worm” Moon tonight. Beautiful moonlight everywhere but cold outside. It would be a great evening if it was 50 degrees warmer or so. The Last Quarter Moon is on Monday, March 20th with chance of snow expected. The Full “Pink” Moon is on Tuesday, April 11th.
The sun will rise at 7:10 am with the first light at 6:42 am, which is one minute and 39 seconds earlier than today. Tonight will have 12 hours and 9 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 52 seconds over last night. Thursday is equal darkness and light.
Tomorrow will have increasing clouds, with a high of 29 degrees at 4pm. 14 degrees below normal. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. A year ago, we had mostly cloudy skies and a high of 59 degrees. The record high of 70 was set in 2012. 22 inches of snow fell back in 1993.
10-18 inches of snow is predicted for Tuesday into Wednesday. Snowfall will spread southwest to northeast across the warning area from between midnight Monday night to just before daybreak Tuesday morning. Snow will become heavy during the day Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night. Lighter snowfall may linger late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds…north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Very hazardous travel especially for the slow slightly of a commute on Tuesday evening with 7-8 inches expected to fall in the day time before rush hour.
I am prepared for the snowstorm. I’ve gone shopping for the weekend and have my truck parked out of the way so my landlord can push back the snowbanks and plow out my parking space. I’ll dig out Big Red on Saturday. I’ll wear my big insulated hunting boots to work on Tuesday. And I’m well stocked up for food. So it should be a good week and it will one last big hurrah hopefully for the snow for the year.
Right now, a split verdict on the weekend. Saturday, partly sunny, with a high near 41. Sunday, a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Right now NOAA isn’t calling for a snow storm next weekend but some forecast models show that. If the forecast remains true, it will be good skiing come Saturday. Typical average high for the weekend is 45 degrees.
In four weeks on April 9 the sun will be setting at 7:31 pm, which is 32 minutes and 12 seconds later then tonight. In 2016 on that day, we had mostly cloudy skies and temperatures between 46 and 27 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 55 and 35 degrees. The record high of 77 degrees was set back in 1991.
Looking ahead, Palm Sunday is in 4 weeks, Easter is in 5 weeks, Mother’s Day is in 9 weeks and Father’s Day is in 14 weeks.
The seasonally unadjusted unemployment numbers for New York State in New York State suggest the Hudson Valley economy going fairly strong, while the Tug Hill Plateau and the Adirondacks struggle to create jobs. I wonder if the particularly high unemployment rate in this region is in part due to the mild weather which has cut into snowmobiling, skiing, and other forms of winter recreation. The Western NY economy in contrast appears to be relatively strong in the month of January.
As a side note, in case your wondering why I am posting this data now, unemployment data in NY State is lagged about a month after the statistics are collected for processing. Unemployment numbers for January became available on March 3rd.
If you are interested in downloading the NYS Department of Labor Unemployment Data, you can get it from this month's press release. http://labor.ny.gov/stats/pressreleases/pruistat.shtm
For sake of contrast, here is the December 2015 numbers. Remember, these numbers are uncorrected for seasonal factors, and unemployment tends to increase after holiday retail and shipping jobs go away. http://andyarthur.org/map-december-2015-unemployment-rate.html#full-screen
Job Creation by President:
John F. Kennedy – Start: 53.6 million, Ended: 57.2 million, 3.6 million new jobs
Lyndon Johnson – Start: 57.2 million, Ended: 69.4 million, 12.2 million new jobs
Richard Nixon – Start: 69.4 million, Ended: 78.3 million, 8.9 million new jobs
Gerald Ford – Start: 78.3 million, Ended: 80.6 million, 2.3 million new jobs
Jimmy Carter – Start: 80.6 million, Ended: 91.1 million, 10.6 million new jobs
Ronald Reagan: – Start: 91.1 million, Ended: 107.1 million, 16.0 million new jobs
George Bush – Start: 107.1 million, Ended: 108.9 million, 1.8 million new jobs
Bill Clinton – Start: 108.9 million, Ended: 132.7 million, 23.8 million new jobs
George W Bush – Start: 132.7 million, Ended: 134.0 million, 1.3 million new jobs
Barack Obama – Start: 134.0 million, Ended: 145.5 million, 11.5 million new jobs
Donald Trump – Start: 145.5 million, Now: 145.8 million, 0.3 million new jobs
Since 1960, the greatest job creation presidents:
1) Bill Clinton
2) Ronald Reagan
3) Lyndon Johnson
4) Barack Obama
5) Jimmy Carter
6) Richard Nixon
7) John F. Kennedy
8) Gerald Ford
9) George Bush
10) George W. Bush
11) Donald Trump (so far)
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, March 12, 2017.
Since 2009, the S&P 500 Index has more then doubled. Do we have correction in our future? We will have to see going forward.
Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P 500© [SP500], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500, March 11, 2017.
This interactive graph shows the hourly weather forecast for the next seven days. The bars represent the temperature, the pink line reprsents the dew point and the white line represents the dewpoint. Red dots are climate normals for the day. Orange dots are record temperatures. Green dots are last year's temperatures.
Yellow bars represent generally sunny conditions. The more gray the bar is, the more clouds expected. Blue bars represent a greater then 50% chance of rain. Purple bars represent a greater then 50% chance of snow. Orange bars represent a greater then 50% chance of thunderstorms. Red bars represent warm and muggy weather, under generally clear skies.
Tonight, March 12, the sun will set at 6:59 PM with dusk at 7:27 PM. Average high is 43 degrees.
On April 8, the sun will set at 7:30 PM with dusk at 7:59 PM. Average high is 55 degrees.
On May 5, the sun will set at 8:00 PM with dusk at 8:32 PM. Average high is 66 degrees.
On June 6, the sun will set at 8:30 PM with dusk at 9:04 PM. Average high is 75 degrees.
On June 22, the sun will set at 8:39 PM with dusk at 9:12 PM (latest sunset of the year). Average high is 80 degrees.