Monetary Stimulus

It’s funny how none of the presidential candidates want to talk about their plans to unwind the monetary stimulus or the long-term problems caused by negative or extremely low fed rates.

Much like engaging the choke on an engine to get more fuel to a cold engine, monetary stimulus is good for getting the economy going during the recession by putting more money into the economy. But if hold the choke in on an engine, while the engine warms, eventually the fuel mixture becomes too rich, and your engine will flood and stall. In economic terms, if you hold fed rates too low for too long, you will encourage risky speculation in the stock market, as people seek returns, and eventually cause inflation by making credit too easy and cheap to get.

Unfortunately, like a malfunctioning carburetor, as soon as the fed starts to reduce the monetary stimulus, the economy shows signs of weakness. It seems like the economy is running well on full choke right now, but as soon as you cut the choke,Β it threatens to stall.Β But you can’t run an engine on full choke forever — you are loosing a lot of long-term economic strength by forcing investors to make risky bets and pushing us towards further inflation. Like an engine that is choked, you are losing a lot of economic strength that would exist could the economy succeed without the choke on.

Fixing an engine with a malfunctioning carburetor is relatively simple. You probably have a plugged fuel line or poor quality fuel. Maybe the air and fuel mixture is off on the carburetor, and the engine is running too lean. The federal reserve can adjust the choke on the economy by tinkering with fed rates, but it can’t fix bigger structural problems in the economy.

Some of the economic change may be do to an economy whose population has gotten older, andΒ doesn’t consume as many resources as it once did. The price of energy is another concern — while oil prices are low now, we know that they will not likely remain this low going forward. The low price of energy is leading to under-investment of energy resources needed in the future. Machines and automation are eliminating a lot of tasks. The incredible weight of expensive education systems and healthcare system (“maximum healthcare at all costs for all”) is another drag.

October 8, 2016 Morning

Good morning! Happy Saturday. One month out from Election Day and six weeks until Regular Season in the Southern Zone. Fairly heavy rains with the mercury aroundΒ 61 degrees in North Syracuse. There is a south breeze at 7 mph. Rain will pick up midday, then die down in the afternoon with clearing but much cooler temperatures on Sunday and Columbus Day. I think the high for Columbus Day in North Syracuse will be only about 57 degrees, and much cooler in the mountains.

Today will have showers, mainly before 1pm. High nearΒ 65 degrees at 1pm. Two degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 59 at 1pm. South wind 7 to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Two degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 59 at 1pm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. The record high of 79 was set in 2011.

The sun will set at 6:31 pm with dusk around 7:00 pm, which is 1 minutes and 43 seconds earlier than yesterday. Today will have 11 hours and 20 minutes of daylight, a decrease of 2 minutes and 54 seconds over yesterday.

Tonight will have a chance of showers, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of 49 degrees at 6am. Six degrees above normal. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. The record low of 27 occurred back in 2001.

On this day in 1969, the opening rally of the Days of Rage occurs, organized by the Weather Underground in Chicago.Β Designed to be an anti-warΒ rally, a combination of an aggressive policeΒ presence and high turn-out lead theΒ rallyΒ to turnΒ violent.

There are 2 weeks until Make a Difference Day and also First Day of Regular Season in the Northern Zone when the sun will be setting at 6:09 pm with dusk at 6:38 pm — at least in North Syracuse. The average high temperature is 57 degrees, with a record high of 86 in 1979.